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Research & Investment Strategy

UK Budget: Next steps, not complete vision

David Page, Head of Macro Research, comments on the UK Budget and outlook for medium-term public finances.


Walking and Talking

Fed speakers "talked dovish" but did not push back against the rise in yields, which unsurprisingly continued. The ECB is more pro-active.


And now to the ECB (again)

Real long-term interest rates rose in the Euro area last week, following the US reaction to the Biden plan.


Keynesians vs. Keynesians

The debate between Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman on the risks stemming from Biden’s fiscal stimulus is all but an obscure academic dispute. The questions they raise are key to the trajectory of l ...


The Rimini Platform

We look into the likely agenda and the chances of success of a Draghi premiership in Italy, in particular drawing from a wide-ranging speech he gave in Rimini in August of last year.


Policy Manoeuvres in the Dark

There is some talk of taking the deposit rate further down in some quarters of the European Central Bank (ECB), to try to stem the recent appreciation of the euro.


Macrocast - Trading Complexity

This week we take a breather from commenting on the latest developments on the pandemic, the cycle and policy-making to focus on trade and investment relations between the US, China and the European ...


Relative Speed

Accumulating signs of cyclical softness in the US may help Biden’s massive stimulus through Congress, but some compromise will be needed.


Biden’s Fiscal Reflation

We finally have a clear picture of the parliamentary parameters for Biden’s economic policy. The fiscal push may be a headache for the Fed, and we expect market pressure on the central bank to peak w ...