126 publicaciones disponibles
8 de noviembre de 2019
A very British bounce?
There are potential opportunities in UK equities. However, these are dependent on the post-election and post-Brexit environment.
1 de noviembre de 2019
Boom, bust or blah!
The end-cycle slowdown could still end up in a recession in the next year or so. But it would be an odd one. Real rates never got anywhere near as high as before previous recessions in the US and the ...
11 de octubre de 2019
Markets have performed well this year despite all the uncertainties. A clearing of some of those is possible in the weeks ahead (possible I said, not probable). If that does happen, risk is likely to ...
27 de septiembre de 2019
Default is Credit
The strong performance from credit markets this year receives limited attention. However, the reality is that default risk remains very low and credit risk premiums generally compensate investors for ...
20 de septiembre de 2019
Carry Me Home
The market is trading like it believes the mid-cycle correction story rather than the impending recession narrative.
13 de septiembre de 2019
The ECB has cemented low rates for a long time and it will also resume buying bonds. Can yields rise substantially in that environment? I suspect that bond yields remain low, even if they don’t plumb ...
6 de septiembre de 2019
Get Your Coat
The short-lived divergence of global monetary policy in 2017-2018 gave way to the super gravitational pull of negative interest rates in 2019.
30 de agosto de 2019
Suddenly the Brexit stakes have been raised. Prime Minister Johnson has made a call that convincing the world that he is prepared to leave the EU without a deal and that he is prepared to take risks ...
23 de agosto de 2019
Over the long run, total return in bond investing is driven by income. This year it has all been about capital appreciation. Bond prices have moved aggressively and this leaves the market subject to ...