121 publicaciones disponibles
13 de septiembre de 2019
The ECB has cemented low rates for a long time and it will also resume buying bonds. Can yields rise substantially in that environment? I suspect that bond yields remain low, even if they don’t plumb ...
6 de septiembre de 2019
Get Your Coat
The short-lived divergence of global monetary policy in 2017-2018 gave way to the super gravitational pull of negative interest rates in 2019.
30 de agosto de 2019
Suddenly the Brexit stakes have been raised. Prime Minister Johnson has made a call that convincing the world that he is prepared to leave the EU without a deal and that he is prepared to take risks ...
23 de agosto de 2019
Over the long run, total return in bond investing is driven by income. This year it has all been about capital appreciation. Bond prices have moved aggressively and this leaves the market subject to ...
15 de agosto de 2019
Doesn't Feel Good
Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means.
19 de julio de 2019
Holidays in the sun
President Trump appears to want much lower rates and a weaker dollar. Those views are political. If we were to get them, then US inflation risk premiums could rise.
12 de julio de 2019
Yield not equal to return
Bonds have sold off a bit this week, but I believe that the bull market remains in place. Global monetary policy is about to be eased yet there are reasons to be relatively relaxed about the near-ter ...
5 de julio de 2019
Here Comes the Summer
Bond returns are being driven by expectations of monetary easing and an unerring search for yield. The result is yields that are increasingly falling below policy interest rates. This may only revers ...
21 de junio de 2019
Lower rates, no recession
Navigating through all the noise out there, it seems the most sensible expectation that investors should have is described by “lower rates but no recession”. Central banks were more dovish again this ...