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Pull to par
Bond yields are still low relative to current inflation and to their history. As such, there isn’t much bullishness around fixed income.
In the thick of the tightening
The Fed is doing a good job now, putting up rates along the path that it has successfully set out for the market.
Back to which future?
It would be extraordinary if advanced economies had reverted to the price and wage setting behaviours of forty years ago in the space of just one year.
Soft landing anyone?
Market pricing and economic forecasts currently point to a soft landing in the US.
Does bad get better?
The Fed’s tightening cycle is underway. Bonds have performed very poorly. There is a chance that they do better going forward.
Tired and Emotional
Markets are exhausting at the moment
Valuations are adjusting in markets in response higher economic misery. Growth is set to be weaker and inflation is unacceptably high.
There is huge uncertainty over what happens in Ukraine and what the collateral damage to the world economy will eventually be.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is negative for the global economy primarily as a result of the disruption in the supply of energy and other commodities.