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Fiscal Forward Guidance
The current EU fiscal surveillance framework is probably ill-suited to guide governments through their “exit strategy” from the ongoing extraordinary policy stimulus.
We look at “glitches” which impair fiscal policy in the US and the Euro area. We don’t think the Republican “red line” on a quantum would constrain a decent emergency stimulus that much.
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over
The sanitary situation in the US is concerning and the good news on the vaccine won’t likely change the macro trajectory before mid-2021.
If after the January 5th run-offs in Georgia the Democrats still don’t control the Senate, President-elect Biden will have to try to follow a “purple pathway” on economic policy to address “secular s ...
Back to square zero?
Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win the US elections, with in addition a fair chance of a “blue wave”.
The pandemic second wave is nasty enough for the trend towards more stringent restrictive measures to continue. Data already suggests the deterioration in confidence goes beyond the most exposed sect ...
China’s net zero
We focus this week on China’s decision to become carbon neutral by 2060.
Policy hurdles, political dilemmas
After some U-turns from the US President and although discussions are continuing, no deal has been found on a new fiscal stimulus package.
Still waiting for the US cavalry
The Payroll data for September confirmed that the recovery of the US labour market is stalling. The fact that employment failed to grow outside the hospitality sector suggests the difficulties go wel ...