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Macrocast

Fiscal Forward Guidance

The current EU fiscal surveillance framework is probably ill-suited to guide governments through their “exit strategy” from the ongoing extraordinary policy stimulus.

Macrocast

Fiscal Glitches

We look at “glitches” which impair fiscal policy in the US and the Euro area. We don’t think the Republican “red line” on a quantum would constrain a decent emergency stimulus that much.

Macrocast
5 minute read

It ain’t over ‘til it’s over

The sanitary situation in the US is concerning and the good news on the vaccine won’t likely change the macro trajectory before mid-2021.

Macrocast

Deep purple?

If after the January 5th run-offs in Georgia the Democrats still don’t control the Senate, President-elect Biden will have to try to follow a “purple pathway” on economic policy to address “secular s ...

Macrocast

Back to square zero?

Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win the US elections, with in addition a fair chance of a “blue wave”.

Macrocast

Everybody hurts

The pandemic second wave is nasty enough for the trend towards more stringent restrictive measures to continue. Data already suggests the deterioration in confidence goes beyond the most exposed sect ...

Macrocast

China’s net zero

We focus this week on China’s decision to become carbon neutral by 2060.

Macrocast

Policy hurdles, political dilemmas

After some U-turns from the US President and although discussions are continuing, no deal has been found on a new fiscal stimulus package.

Macrocast

Still waiting for the US cavalry

The Payroll data for September confirmed that the recovery of the US labour market is stalling. The fact that employment failed to grow outside the hospitality sector suggests the difficulties go wel ...