German elections: The post-Merkel era

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A guide to German elections and coalition negotiations

Key points

• Germany will vote on 26 September to elect representatives to the Bundestag – the federal parliament
• Pre-election polls suggest no single party will achieve an outright majority and that a three-party coalition is likely to be necessary
• The current polls show the SPD, led by Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, leading at 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU (22%), the Greens (15%), the centre-right and liberal FDP at 12%, and the Left party (6.5%)
• We currently consider a ‘traffic light’ coalition, with the SPD, Greens and FDP as kingmaker, as the most likely outcome, albeit that such a coalition would struggle to form a coherent economic and social agenda
• There are still uncertainties around margin polls, undecided and tactical votes so other coalitions have been explored. The Left coalition, swapping the FDP for the Left party, would be a breakthrough scenario
• The race to the Chancellery is at least as important as coalitions. We believe a Scholz Chancellery would adopt a more proactive stance at the European Union level