Investment Institute
Punto de vista: Economista Jefe

Crypto Challenge

  • 06 Julio 2021 (15 min de lectura)

Key points

Key data releases last week did not move the bond market: there is still too much “noise”, particularly in the US because of the magnitude of the fiscal push. “Policy thinking” on crypto currencies is accelerating, highlighting the deep ramifications even their most “prudent” forms – such as digital currencies issued by central banks – would have on the entire financial system.

Despite the release of some key economic variables last week – job creation and wage growth in the US, inflation in the Euro area – the bond market was non-plussed. The acceleration in American wages still needs to be tested for the absorption of the fiscal push, and the Euro area is at least for now escaping much of the impact of the “reopening catch-up” and “microchip shortage” with are behind the current price spike in the US. While we continue to wait for more conclusive data, we can devote more energy to exploring long-term issues.

We have noticed an acceleration in “policy thinking” around crypto currencies lately, epitomized by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) annual economic report. The discussion on digital currencies is often obscured by political considerations around the “control of money”. We think the arguments in favour of substituting private digital currencies to the current monetary system dominated by independent central banks in order to better protect the “value of money” are weak and vastly offset by the threats to financial stability.  Still, the BIS makes the point quite eloquently that the current payment system is expensive. The “status quo” is probably not tenable and this explains why central banks are eager to develop their own digital offer.

Digital currencies are first and foremost a technological innovation which can be harnessed to promote inclusiveness and make the financial system more efficient without the most glaring financial stability risks if central banks get involved. However, even if those Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) win against private ones, their development could profoundly change the structure of the financial system. Under certain forms, fully-fledged CBDCs could “devitalize” banking, accelerating the trend towards the disintermediation of investment.

Related Articles

Punto de vista: Economista Jefe

Draghi Captures the Zeitgeist

Punto de vista: Economista Jefe

Zoom on the Boom

Punto de vista: Economista Jefe

Postcard from Davos


    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
    It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.
    All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.
    Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.

    Advertencia sobre riesgos

    El valor de las inversiones y las rentas derivadas de ellas pueden disminuir o aumentar y es posible que los inversores no recuperen la cantidad invertida originalmente.

    Volver arriba
    Clientes Profesionales

    El sitio web de AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS Paris Sucursal en España está destinado exclusivamente a clientes profesionales tal y como son Definidos en la Directiva 2014/65/EU (directiva sobre Mercados de Instrumentos financieros) y en los artículos 194 y 196 de la Ley 6/2023, de 17 de marzo, de los Mercados de Valores y de los Servicios de Inversión. Para una mayor información sobre la disponibilidad de los fondos AXA IM, por favor consulte con su asesor financiero o diríjase a la página web de la CNMV

    Por la presente confirmo que soy un inversor profesional en el sentido de la legislación aplicable.

    Entiendo que la información proporcionada tiene únicamente fines informativos y no constituye una solicitud ni un asesoramiento de inversión.

    Confirmo que poseo los conocimientos, experiencia y aptitudes necesarios en materia de inversión, y que comprendo los riesgos asociados a los productos de inversión, tal como se definen en las normas aplicables en mi jurisdicción.