Investment Institute
Análisis macroeconómico

Colombian election: a left turn?

  • 10 Mayo 2022 (7 min de lectura)

Key points

  • Colombians will vote on 29 May to elect a new president for the 2022-2026 term. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election will be held on 19 June
  • Polls show left-wing Gustavo Petro from the Pacto Histórico coalition holding the lead, but he is unlikely to win outright in the first round
  • A runoff election will likely pit Petro against right-wing candidate Federico Gutiérrez from Equipo por Colombia. While still behind Petro in a hypothetical runoff election, Gutiérrez’s campaign is experiencing strong momentum and has managed to reduce the gap between the two contenders
  • Although Petro’s policy platform differs significantly from Colombia’s traditionally market-friendly framework, we believe it will be hard for him to pass any radical reforms through the country’s highly-fragmented Congress
  • A Petro victory will likely have an immediate effect on bond yields as investors may start questioning Colombia’s fiscal sustainability under his rule.
Descargar el informe de análisis
Descargar informe (343.15 KB)

Artículos relacionados

Análisis macroeconómico

Emerging markets inflation: Characteristics, causes and effects

  • por Irina Topa-Serry , Luis Lopez-Vivas
  • 28 Julio 2022 (7 min de lectura)
Análisis macroeconómico

Equity market compass in the Fed’s hiking trail

  • por Emmanuel Makonga
  • 11 Julio 2022 (7 min de lectura)
Análisis macroeconómico

Will humble and nimble Fed policy avoid recession

  • por David Page
  • 17 Junio 2022 (7 min de lectura)

    Disclaimer

    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.

    All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.

    Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.

    Advertencia sobre riesgos

    El valor de las inversiones y las rentas derivadas de ellas pueden disminuir o aumentar y es posible que los inversores no recuperen la cantidad invertida originalmente.

    Clientes Profesionales

    El sitio web de AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS ESPAÑA está destinado exclusivamente a clientes profesionales tal y como son definidos en la Directiva 2014/65/EU (Directiva sobre Mercados de Instrumentos Financieros). Para una mayor información sobre la disponibilidad de los fondos AXA IM, por favor consulte con su asesor financiero o diríjase a la página web de la CNMV www.cnmv.es